Trump Could Block Netflix-Warner Bros. Deal: Why Industry Experts Say It’s ‘The Right Thing To Do’
Trump administration shows “heavy skepticism” toward $82 billion merger as Paramount launches $108 billion hostile takeover bid
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s unprecedented involvement in Netflix’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery has transformed what appeared to be a done deal into one of the most contentious corporate battles in Hollywood history — with billions of dollars, political intrigue, and the future of American entertainment hanging in the balance.
The president publicly stated he will be “involved in that decision” regarding the $82.7 billion merger, raising antitrust red flags about the streaming giant’s market power and warning that the combined entity “could be a problem.” Trump’s intervention came December 7, 2025, during the Kennedy Center Honors ceremony after meeting with Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos at the White House.
Just days after Netflix announced its deal to acquire Warner Bros.’ studio operations and HBO Max on December 5, rival studio Paramount Skydance launched an aggressive $108.4 billion all-cash hostile takeover bid for the entire company — including CNN and other cable networks that Netflix’s deal would exclude.
The Warner Bros. Discovery board unanimously rejected Paramount’s December 17 offer, but the battle is far from over. With Trump inserting himself directly into the regulatory review process, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds financing competing bids, and his son-in-law’s investment firm (now withdrawn) initially backing Paramount, this mega-merger has become a high-stakes test of how the Trump administration will handle major media consolidation.
Trump Raises Serious Antitrust Concerns
Presidential Intervention Marks Rare Public Role
Trump confirmed he recently met with Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos at the White House to discuss the Warner Bros. Discovery deal, and expressed concerns that the combined entity’s massive market share “could be a problem.”
“Well, that’s got to go through a process, and we’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters December 7. “But it is a big market share. There’s no question about it. It could be a problem.”
The comments mark a significant departure from typical presidential protocol. While media mergers are always subject to government regulatory approval, it’s exceedingly rare for a sitting president to take such a public role in reviewing a private corporate transaction.
The Trump administration’s Justice Department is expected to conduct an extensive antitrust review that could take 12-18 months, with regulators examining whether the combined entity would harm competition, raise prices for consumers, or limit choices in the streaming marketplace.
Fox Business reports that the administration shows “heavy skepticism” toward the deal, with Trump officials questioning whether it serves American consumers’ interests.
The Deal That’s Shaking Hollywood
The proposed transaction would bring together Netflix’s already massive subscriber base of over 300 million globally with Warner Bros. Discovery’s 128 million streaming customers across HBO Max, Discovery+, and other platforms — creating a streaming behemoth that would control approximately 43% of the global subscription video-on-demand market.
Netflix’s Offer:
- $72 billion (equity value) or $82.7 billion (enterprise value including debt)
- $27.75 per share in mixed cash and stock ($23.25 cash, $4.50 stock)
- Covers only studio operations, HBO, and HBO Max streaming service
- Excludes cable networks including CNN, TNT, TBS, and other channels
- Includes record $5.8 billion breakup fee if deal fails regulatory approval
- Expected to close in back half of 2026
Under Netflix’s plan, Warner Bros. Discovery will first split into two publicly traded companies in mid-2026. One entity, named Warner Bros., will house the movie studio and HBO. The other, Discovery Global, will contain CNN and cable channels. Netflix would then acquire only the Warner Bros. portion.
Paramount Launches Unprecedented $108 Billion Hostile Takeover
Oracle Heir Goes on Offensive
In a dramatic twist that transformed the battle for Warner Bros. Discovery into a corporate showdown worthy of “Succession,” Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison announced December 8 his company was launching an all-cash tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 per share.
The hostile bid, which goes directly to Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders and bypasses the board that had already selected Netflix as the winning bidder, represents an enterprise value of $108.4 billion.
“We’re really here to finish what we started,” Ellison told CNBC December 8. “When you combine the No. 1 streamer with the No. 3 streamer, that creates a company that has unprecedented market power, north of 400 million subscribers. The next largest competitor is Disney, with just under 200 million. That’s bad for Hollywood.”
The Battle of the Bids: Cash vs. Stock
The competing offers present vastly different propositions for Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders:
Paramount’s Hostile Offer:
- $30 per share, all cash
- $108.4 billion enterprise value (includes debt)
- $77.9 billion equity value
- Acquisition of the ENTIRE company, including all cable networks (CNN, TNT, TBS)
- Backed by Larry Ellison’s personal $40.4 billion guarantee
- $54 billion debt commitments from Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo Global
- $24 billion from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth funds
- Claims faster regulatory approval (10-12 months vs. 12-18 months)
- Promises $6 billion in cost-cutting synergies
Key Difference: Paramount argues its all-cash offer provides $17.6 billion more in cash than Netflix’s deal and superior certainty compared to Netflix’s complex structure involving both cash, stock, and the uncertain future value of spun-off cable networks.
“Stronger Hollywood” Campaign Launched
Ellison, son of Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison (net worth: $240+ billion), launched a website called “StrongerHollywood” to make his case directly to shareholders and the entertainment industry.
“We believe our offer will create a stronger Hollywood,” Ellison wrote. “It is in the best interests of the creative community, consumers and the movie theater industry.”
The Oracle heir, who produced blockbuster “Top Gun: Maverick” and other “Mission: Impossible” films, closed his $8 billion acquisition of Paramount Global just months earlier in August 2025.
Warner Bros. Board Rejects Paramount’s Hostile Bid
Board Accuses Paramount of Misleading Shareholders
On December 17, Warner Bros. Discovery’s board unanimously rejected Paramount’s hostile takeover offer, calling it “illusory” and arguing the Netflix deal provides superior value.
“The PSKY offer provides inadequate value and imposes numerous, significant risks and costs on WBD,” the board wrote in a letter to shareholders. “Paramount has consistently misled WBD shareholders that its proposed transaction has a ‘full backstop’ from the Ellison family.”
The board challenged Paramount’s claims about financing, noting that much of the equity commitment came from “an unknown and opaque Lawrence J. Ellison Revocable Trust, whose assets and liabilities are not publicly disclosed” rather than direct Ellison family commitments.
Warner Bros. also raised concerns about:
- Foreign ownership triggering national security reviews
- Complex seven-party financing structure
- Reliance on Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds
- Paramount’s creditworthiness and financial condition
- The trust’s assets could be withdrawn at any time
Jared Kushner’s Fund Withdraws
The day before the board’s formal rejection, Affinity Partners — the investment firm founded by Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law — announced it was withdrawing from Paramount’s bid.
“With two strong competitors vying to secure the future of this unique American asset, Affinity has decided no longer to pursue the opportunity,” the firm said in a statement December 16. “The dynamics of the investment have changed significantly since we initially became involved in October.”
The withdrawal came amid growing scrutiny about potential conflicts of interest given Trump’s stated intention to personally review whichever deal moves forward. Senator Bernie Sanders had accused Trump of “embracing authoritarianism” after learning Kushner helped advance the hostile takeover bid.
Kushner is believed to have helped Paramount broker relationships with the Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds backing the bid. While Affinity’s specific financial contribution wasn’t disclosed, sources told Bloomberg its involvement drew unwelcome attention to an already politically complicated transaction.
Political Dynamics Complicate Regulatory Review
Trump’s Complicated Relationships with Key Players
The merger battle has become intensely politicized, with multiple factors influencing the Trump administration’s potential response.
Netflix’s Ted Sarandos: Despite antitrust concerns, Trump praised Sarandos at the Kennedy Center Honors: “He’s a great person. He’s done one of the greatest jobs in the history of movies and other things. He’s got a lot of interesting things happening aside from what you’re talking about.”
When asked whether Sarandos made any guarantees about the merger, Trump said: “No, no, not at all. He came up. He was in the Oval Office last week. I have a lot of respect for him.”
Sarandos later described Trump’s interest: “What the president has been interested in in this deal has been to what extent does it protect and create jobs in America.”
David Ellison: The Paramount CEO has cultivated ties with the Trump administration, sitting with the president at multiple UFC events and agreeing to administration conditions to complete his Paramount acquisition in August 2025.
However, Trump recently expressed frustration with Ellison on Truth Social December 16: “For those people that think I am close with the new owners of CBS, please understand that 60 Minutes has treated me far worse since the so-called ‘takeover,’ than they have ever treated me before. If they are friends, I’d hate to see my enemies!”
Larry Ellison: The Oracle founder, one of the world’s wealthiest individuals with a net worth exceeding $240 billion, has been described by Trump as a friend and supporter. The Wall Street Journal reported Larry Ellison called Trump after the Netflix deal was announced to argue it would hurt competition.
CNN Factor Looms Large
Trump inserted himself directly into the battle by stating “It’s imperative that CNN be sold” while deriding the network’s news coverage at the White House December 13.
“I think the people that have run CNN for the last long period of time are a disgrace,” Trump said.
This public statement appeared to favor Paramount’s bid, which would include CNN, over Netflix’s deal that explicitly excludes the news network. CNN is among news organizations against which Trump has pursued retaliatory litigation, and his administrations have removed press credentials from CNN reporters.
In an interview with CNBC, David Ellison suggested CNN would be merged with CBS News (which was included in his Paramount acquisition), creating a combined news operation under Paramount’s ownership.
Bipartisan Congressional Opposition Emerges
Senate Antitrust Hearing Planned
The Netflix deal has drawn criticism from lawmakers across the political spectrum, signaling potential regulatory headwinds regardless of the administration’s position.
Republican Opposition: Senator Mike Lee (R-Utah), who chairs the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, announced December 6 that a hearing on the streaming giant’s acquisition would be forthcoming, claiming the deal had “a lot of antitrust red flags.”
Even Senator Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana), a physician who chairs the Senate Health Committee, distanced himself from the changes. “Changing the pediatric vaccine schedule based on no scientific input on safety risks and little transparency will cause unnecessary fear for patients and doctors, and will make America sicker,” Cassidy wrote on X.
Democratic Opposition: Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) called it “an anti-monopoly nightmare,” warning that “A Netflix-Warner Bros. would create one massive media giant with control of close to half of the streaming market. It could force you into higher prices, fewer choices over what and how you watch, and may put American workers at risk.”
Warren further criticized Trump’s antitrust review process, claiming it has “become a cesspool of political favoritism and corruption.” She called on the Justice Department to enforce anti-monopoly laws “fairly and transparently” and not to “use the Warner Bros. deal review to invite influence-peddling and bribery.”
Industry Groups Voice Strong Opposition
Writers Guild of America: The WGA issued a scathing statement opposing the deal: “This merger must be blocked. The world’s largest streaming company swallowing one of its biggest competitors is what antitrust laws were designed to prevent. The outcome would eliminate jobs, push down wages, worsen conditions for all entertainment workers, raise prices for consumers, and reduce the volume and diversity of content for all viewers.”
Theater Owners: Exhibition industry groups have expressed concern about Netflix’s theatrical release strategy. While Netflix announced it would give Warner Bros. films a 17-day theatrical window, theater owners argue this is insufficient compared to traditional 45-90 day windows.
Justice Department Review Process
How Antitrust Review Works
Under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act passed by Congress in 1976, parties in large mergers must file pre-merger notification to the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice containing details of the transaction and relevant information about the businesses and industries involved.
Standard Timeline:
- Initial 30-day waiting period after filing
- DOJ (likely lead agency) conducts complete review for antitrust red flags
- If issues identified, agency requests more information (second request)
- Extended review process triggered – can take 12-18 months
- DOJ interviews employees, experts under sworn testimony
- Agency reviews documents, analyzes market impact
Possible Outcomes:
- Close investigation, allow deal to proceed unchallenged
- Sign consent agreement with provisions to restore competition
- Move to block the merger through federal court lawsuit
- Conditional approval with divestitures or behavioral remedies
The Federal Communications Commission will not need to review the deal since neither Netflix nor Warner Bros. owns broadcast stations.
European Union Review Also Required
Both deals would require approval from EU regulators, who have historically taken aggressive stances on media consolidation. Netflix faces potential challenges in multiple European countries where it combines the dominant streaming service with strong number-two or number-three competitors.
Netflix’s Defense Strategy Takes Shape
Arguments Expected from Streaming Giant
Netflix executives are preparing a multi-pronged defense of the acquisition:
Market Definition: Netflix is expected to argue the relevant market includes not just traditional subscription streaming services but also:
- YouTube (owned by Alphabet/Google)
- TikTok (owned by ByteDance)
- Facebook Watch
- Other social video platforms
Co-CEO Greg Peters told investors December 8: “We recognize the Netflix deal came as a shock but we believe the Warner Bros. studio and HBO Max content is complementary to Netflix’s business.”
Subscriber Overlap: Sources familiar with Netflix’s strategy say the company will argue that more than 75% of HBO Max subscribers already subscribe to Netflix, making them complementary offerings rather than direct competitors.
Consumer Benefits: Netflix plans to contend that ownership would:
- Reduce content costs through vertical integration
- Enable bundling that could lower consumer prices
- Eliminate redundant back-end technology spending
- Create efficiencies benefiting subscribers
Relative Market Size: Netflix will argue that even combined with Warner Bros. and HBO Max, the entity would be roughly the same size as Google’s YouTube in the U.S. streaming market and would still have less total TV market share than other media conglomerates.
Job Protection Argument
Co-CEO Ted Sarandos has emphasized job preservation: “This deal is pro-consumer, pro-innovation, pro-worker, it’s pro-creator, it’s pro-growth. In the offer that Paramount was talking about today, they also were talking about $6 billion of synergies” — implying massive layoffs.
Netflix argues its acquisition would protect Warner Bros. jobs at a time when layoffs have been widespread across media companies.
Industry Impact and Future Implications
Content Creator Concerns
Industry observers worry that consolidation could fundamentally reshape Hollywood’s economics:
Fewer Buyers: Reducing the number of buyers for film and television content could:
- Lower prices paid to creators
- Limit diverse storytelling opportunities
- Concentrate power in fewer hands
- Reduce competition for talent
Theatrical Release Concerns: Netflix’s historically limited theatrical release strategy concerns filmmakers and theater owners. While the company promised to maintain Warner Bros.’ theatrical operations and announced a 17-day window for Warner films, critics argue this falls short of traditional Hollywood practices.
Streaming Market Consolidation
The deal would reshape the competitive landscape:
Global Market Share (Post-Merger):
- Netflix-Warner Bros.: ~430 million subscribers (43% of SVOD market)
- Disney+ bundle: ~200 million subscribers
- Amazon Prime Video: ~175 million subscribers
- Apple TV+: ~25 million subscribers
Regional Dominance: In many European countries, the combined entity would unite the #1 and #2 or #3 streaming services, raising particular regulatory concerns abroad.
Hollywood’s Uncertain Future
Regardless of which bid prevails, the battle signals major changes ahead for entertainment:
If Netflix Wins:
- Unprecedented vertical integration from production to distribution
- Potential shift away from traditional theatrical releases
- More streaming-first content strategies
- Possible price increases for consumers
- Reduced competition in streaming market
If Paramount Wins:
- Two legacy studios combined (Paramount + Warner Bros.)
- Preservation of theatrical release model
- $6 billion in cost-cutting synergies (likely job losses)
- CNN potentially merged with CBS News
- Continued competition against Netflix, Disney, Amazon
Trump Administration’s Historic Role
Unprecedented Presidential Involvement
Trump’s direct involvement represents a significant shift in how media mergers are reviewed.
Historical Context: During his first presidential campaign in 2016, Trump opposed the AT&T-Time Warner merger, saying “It’s too much concentration of power in the hands of too few.” He referred to it as “an example of the power structure I am fighting.”
The Justice Department sued to block that deal, though it ultimately proceeded after AT&T prevailed in court. AT&T later divested WarnerMedia to Discovery in 2022, creating Warner Bros. Discovery.
Current Complications: The situation is far more complex now due to:
- Trump’s relationships with both Sarandos and the Ellisons
- His son-in-law’s investment firm’s initial involvement
- His longstanding criticism of CNN
- Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund backing
- Political pressure from both parties in Congress
Precedent-Setting Implications
“White House interference in antitrust cases, whether it’s mergers or monopolization cases or other cases, really threatens at the very core due process and the rule of law,” Diana Moss, former president of the American Antitrust Institute and current vice president at the Progressive Policy Institute, told TIME.
Kevin Hassett, seen as a leading contender to become the next Federal Reserve chairman, defended Trump’s involvement: “It’s not rare for presidents to have opinions about big, society-changing mergers. I think the president is just very interested in making sure that there’s a lot of analysis to make sure that we make the right choice.”
What Happens Next
Three Key Developments to Watch
1. Shareholder Decision: Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders must ultimately decide whether to accept Paramount’s hostile offer (expires January 8, 2026, unless extended) or wait for the Netflix deal to close in back half of 2026.
Some major shareholders have already indicated they plan to reject the board’s advice and tender their shares to Paramount, betting on the higher cash payout despite the board’s concerns about financing risks.
2. Paramount’s Next Move: After the board’s rejection, Paramount has several options:
- Increase its bid above $30 per share
- File lawsuit challenging the board’s decision
- Extend the tender offer deadline
- Launch proxy fight for board seats
- Walk away (though Ellison vowed to “finish what we started”)
David Ellison told Zaslav via text that $30 per share “wasn’t the company’s best and final offer,” suggesting Paramount is willing to bid higher.
3. Regulatory Review Timeline: Whichever deal proceeds faces:
- Justice Department antitrust review (12-18 months)
- Potential European Union challenges
- Congressional hearings (Senate Judiciary Subcommittee scheduled)
- Trump administration’s unprecedented direct involvement
- Prediction markets showing only 23% chance deal closes by end of 2026 (down from 60% before Trump’s comments)
Breakup Fees at Stake
The deals involve massive breakup fees:
Netflix-WBD Agreement:
- If deal fails regulatory approval: Netflix pays WBD $5.8 billion (record breakup fee)
- If WBD backs out for better deal: WBD pays Netflix $2.8 billion
These enormous fees reflect both parties’ confidence — or concerns — about regulatory approval odds.
Expert Analysis: Why Blocking May Be Right
Antitrust Experts Weigh In
Legal scholars and antitrust experts have raised serious concerns about both proposed deals:
Professor Rebecca Allensworth (Vanderbilt Law): “An aggressive enforcer would look at a narrow market of streaming, in which the merger would eliminate competition from other streaming providers.”
Professor Maurice Stucke (University of Tennessee Law): “It’s not just a question of higher prices. It could be less content, less choice, less innovation and a decrease in quality — all of those could be a concern.”
Professor Diana Moss (Progressive Policy Institute): “White House interference in antitrust cases really threatens at the very core due process and the rule of law.”
Market Analyst Perspectives
Michael Pachter (Wedbush Securities): The managing director of strategic planning has analyzed how Warner Bros. Discovery’s board should evaluate competing offers, noting both deals raise significant competitive concerns.
Ed Yardeni (Yardeni Research): “I don’t think it really creates a monopolistic situation. Technology monopolies don’t last very long because somebody figures out how to compete against them, and there are certainly plenty of other streaming services.”
Wall Street Reaction
Following Trump’s December 7 comments:
- Bets on prediction marketplace Polymarket showed 23% chance of Netflix closing the acquisition by end of 2026, down from around 60% before Trump’s remarks
- Netflix stock dropped 3% December 8
- Warner Bros. Discovery shares rose 4%
- Paramount gained 9%
Following WBD board’s December 17 rejection of Paramount:
- Paramount stock tumbled 3.8%
- Warner Bros. shares declined
- Netflix stock surged
The Bottom Line
This corporate battle represents more than just a business transaction — it’s become a test case for how the Trump administration will handle major media mergers and whether political considerations will override traditional antitrust analysis.
Key Questions Remain:
- Will Trump block Netflix’s deal due to genuine antitrust concerns or political motivations?
- Can Paramount overcome the board’s rejection with a higher bid?
- Will shareholders accept either offer or demand better terms?
- How will Congress’s bipartisan opposition influence DOJ review?
- What role will Trump’s relationships with key executives play?
The coming months will reveal whether Trump’s involvement represents a principled stand against media consolidation or reflects the “political favoritism and corruption” that critics like Senator Warren have warned about.
Either way, the decision will shape the future of streaming entertainment, Hollywood’s business model, and set important precedents for how corporate America navigates Washington in the Trump era.
The stakes couldn’t be higher: Billions of dollars, hundreds of millions of subscribers, thousands of jobs, and the future of American entertainment all hang in the balance as this unprecedented corporate drama unfolds.
Timeline of Key Events
September 2025: Paramount begins pursuing Warner Bros. Discovery
November 20, 2025: Three bidders (Netflix, Comcast, Paramount) submit first-round offers
December 1, 2025: Bidders submit detailed offers with financing details
- Netflix improves offer for studios and HBO
- Paramount increases to $26.50/share
- Comcast proposes combining NBCUniversal with Warner
December 5, 2025: Netflix announces $82.7 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. studios and HBO Max
December 7, 2025: Trump says deal “could be a problem” at Kennedy Center Honors
December 8, 2025: Paramount launches $108.4 billion hostile takeover bid
- David Ellison goes directly to shareholders
- Launches “StrongerHollywood” website campaign
December 13, 2025: Trump says “It’s imperative that CNN be sold”
December 16, 2025: Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners withdraws from Paramount bid
- Trump criticizes Ellisons on Truth Social
December 17, 2025: Warner Bros. Discovery board unanimously rejects Paramount’s offer
- Board accuses Paramount of misleading shareholders about financing
January 8, 2026: Paramount’s tender offer scheduled to expire (unless extended)
Mid-2026: Warner Bros. Discovery plans to split into two companies
Back Half 2026: Netflix-WBD deal expected to close (if approved)
This is a developing story. Additional updates will be posted as this unprecedented merger battle continues to unfold.
Last updated: January 6, 2026
