U.S. Records First Negative Net Migration in 50 Years as Trump Immigration Policies Reshape America’s Labor Force
More people left America than entered in 2025, marking a historic demographic shift with far-reaching economic consequences
Published: January 16, 2026
For the first time in at least half a century, the United States experienced negative net migration in 2025, with more people leaving the country than entering it, according to a groundbreaking report released Tuesday by the Brookings Institution.
The analysis estimates between 10,000 and 295,000 more people departed than arrived during 2025, representing a dramatic reversal in America’s longstanding population growth patterns. This historic shift comes as the Trump administration implements sweeping immigration enforcement measures and policy restrictions that are fundamentally reshaping the nation’s demographic landscape.
Sharp Drop in New Arrivals Drives Historic Reversal
While aggressive deportation efforts have dominated national headlines, researchers found that the negative migration numbers are mostly due to a significant drop in entries into the U.S. The report indicates fewer people are entering through traditional immigration pathways, humanitarian programs, and temporary visa categories.
The Trump administration’s suspension of many humanitarian programs—including most refugee programs with the exception of those involving white South Africans—and a decline in temporary visas contributed to the negative net migration, according to the study.
The Brookings report states: “Though a high degree of policy uncertainty remains, continued negative net migration for 2026 is also likely.”
Economic Fallout: GDP and Jobs at Risk
The economic implications of this demographic shift are substantial and wide-ranging. According to the research, reduced migration will dampen growth in the labor force, consumer spending, and gross domestic product (GDP).
Consumer Spending Impact
Consumer spending is expected to weaken by an estimated $60 billion to $110 billion combined over 2025 and 2026, as fewer immigrants make purchases in the U.S. economy and remaining immigrants potentially reduce spending due to uncertainty.
Labor Market Challenges
The research paints a concerning picture for America’s job market. Economists estimate the sustainable pace of monthly job growth to be between 20,000 and 50,000 in late 2025 and believe it could be negative in 2026.
This represents a dramatic shift from recent years. In recent years, growth in the U.S.-born working-age population has been weak, and nearly all growth in the labor force has stemmed from immigration flows. The 2022-24 immigration surge was accompanied by robust job growth, with immigrants both supplying labor and generating demand for goods and services.
GDP Growth Pressure
The slowdown implies weaker employment, GDP, and consumer spending growth, with economists projecting modest but meaningful dampening effects on overall economic output.
Trump Administration’s Immigration Crackdown: The Numbers
The Trump administration has implemented extensive changes to U.S. immigration policy since taking office in January 2025, including:
- Suspending humanitarian parole programs (with limited exceptions)
- Drastically cutting refugee admissions
- Restricting temporary visa programs
- Increasing interior enforcement operations
- Rescinding work permits for certain categories
- Halting asylum applications
Removal Statistics
Unlike in 2024, most removals in 2025 were initiated by U.S. Customs and Border Protection from the country’s interior, as opposed to being initiated by Immigration and Customs Enforcement—despite ICE operations dominating news coverage.
The Department of Homeland Security has reported significant enforcement activity, though exact figures remain subject to debate among researchers and policymakers.
Conflicting Data and Methodological Debates
The Brookings estimate of net migration of –295,000 to –10,000 for 2025 differs from some other prominent estimates. The most recent Congressional Budget Office demographic estimates, released in January 2026, suggests net migration of around +400,000 for 2025.
These discrepancies stem from different assumptions about deportation numbers, voluntary departures, and survey methodology. The CBO estimate includes fewer deportations and assumes voluntary out-migration falls in response to increased enforcement activity, whereas Brookings assumes it rises.
Some analyses using Current Population Survey (CPS) data have suggested even larger population declines of around 2 million. However, Census has warned against using the CPS to estimate the size of the foreign-born population due to methodological limitations and increased survey non-response rates.
Industries Hit Hardest by Labor Shortage
Several key economic sectors are already feeling the impact of reduced immigration:
Agriculture
Farmers are reporting difficulties maintaining operations amid both deportations and reduced new arrivals. Approximately 40% of the farm labor force over the last three decades has consisted of undocumented immigrants, making this sector particularly vulnerable.
Restaurants and Hospitality
Restaurant owners are struggling to maintain adequate staffing levels. The combination of worker departures and reduced applications from new arrivals has created operational challenges for an industry that has historically relied heavily on immigrant labor.
Small Business
The net migration loss will see certain sectors of the economy experience “unexpectedly weak economic activity,” specifically businesses that serve affected immigrant populations, according to the report.
Construction and Healthcare
These labor-intensive sectors, which have historically depended on immigrant workers, face potential workforce shortages that could slow project completion and service delivery.
Long-Term Economic Projections Paint Troubling Picture
Looking beyond immediate impacts, longer-term projections suggest even more significant economic consequences.
A separate study from the National Foundation for American Policy, released in October 2025, projects that Trump’s immigration policies could reduce the workforce by 6.8 million workers by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035.
The NFAP study estimates these policies would lower the projected average annual economic growth rate from 1.8% to 1.3% between fiscal year 2025 to fiscal year 2035—a reduction of nearly one-third. The study also projects potential cumulative GDP losses of $12.1 trillion over the next decade.
2026 Outlook: Negative Migration Expected to Continue
The report’s authors predicted removals will increase in 2026 with funding from President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which will “likely allow for increased infrastructure and staffing to achieve a higher level of enforcement”.
For 2026, researchers project net migration is likely to remain in negative territory, suggesting that 2025’s historic reversal may represent the beginning of a longer-term trend rather than a one-year anomaly.
Historical Context: A Half-Century First
The last time the United States experienced sustained negative net migration was during the early 1970s, though even then, the phenomenon was not as pronounced as current trends suggest. The 2025 figures represent the most significant reversal in migration patterns in modern American history.
This shift comes after an unprecedented immigration surge from 2020 to 2025, during which approximately 11 million immigrants arrived in the United States. The abrupt policy changes under the Trump administration have effectively reversed what had been record-high migration levels.
What’s Next: Policy and Economic Uncertainty
As the United States navigates this unprecedented demographic shift, questions remain about both short-term economic impacts and long-term policy direction. With the 2026 implementation of additional enforcement measures and funding, economists and policymakers will be closely monitoring:
- Monthly employment data
- GDP growth figures
- Sector-specific economic indicators
- Labor force participation rates
- Wage growth and inflation trends
The Department of Homeland Security, which oversees both Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement, has not provided detailed comments on the Brookings report findings or the broader economic implications of current immigration policies.
For American businesses, workers, and communities, the historic reversal in migration patterns represents both challenges and uncertainty as the nation adjusts to a fundamentally different immigration landscape than has existed for the past half-century.
Key Takeaways
- First time in 50 years: U.S. experienced negative net migration in 2025
- Range of estimates: Between 10,000 to 295,000 more people left than entered
- Primary driver: Sharp decline in new arrivals, not just deportations
- Economic impact: $60-110 billion reduction in consumer spending over 2025-2026
- Job growth: Could turn negative in 2026
- 2026 outlook: Negative migration likely to continue
Related Topics: Immigration policy, U.S. economy, labor force, Trump administration, deportation, GDP growth, workforce development, border security, economic outlook 2026
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